| Idx | Price | MA25 | MA50 | MA200 | Regime | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | 681.69 | 702.69 | 717.75 | 681.21 | Bear | 50% |
| SPY | 754.8 | 761.66 | 764.1 | 729.32 | Bear | 50% |
| Read | Gap | Leaning |
|---|---|---|
| Cyclicals vs Defensives | +4 pts | risk-on |
| Commodities vs Bonds | -7 pts | disinflation |
| Equities vs Bonds | +13 pts | risk appetite |
| Idx | Price | MA25 | MA50 | MA150 | MA200 | vs 25 | vs 50 | vs 150 | vs 200 | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | 681.69 | 702.69 | 717.75 | 708.75 | 681.21 | -3.0% | -5.0% | -3.8% | +0.1% | Bear |
| SPY | 754.8 | 761.66 | 764.1 | 749.26 | 729.32 | -0.9% | -1.2% | +0.7% | +3.5% | Bear |
| Pair | Ratio | Upper | Lower | %Range | Status | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPMO/DGRO | 1.6188 | 2.0223 | 1.5259 | 19% | BELOW | B |
| SPMO/SPYG | 1.1517 | 1.2296 | 1.1015 | 39% | BELOW | B |
| SPMO/SPHQ | 1.5772 | 1.8057 | 1.5102 | 23% | BELOW | B |
| SPMO/IVE | 0.5475 | 0.6673 | 0.5178 | 20% | BELOW | B |
| SPMO/GLD | 0.3713 | 0.407 | 0.3261 | 56% | BELOW | B |
| SPMO/DBMF | 4.0942 | 4.656 | 3.9398 | 22% | BELOW | B |
| DGRO/SPYG | 0.7114 | 0.7219 | 0.6045 | 91% | ABOVE | A |
| DGRO/SPHQ | 0.9743 | 0.9898 | 0.8892 | 85% | ABOVE | A |
| DGRO/IVE | 0.3382 | 0.3394 | 0.33 | 88% | ABOVE | A |
| DGRO/GLD | 0.2294 | 0.2306 | 0.1993 | 96% | ABOVE | A |
| DGRO/DBMF | 2.5292 | 2.6211 | 2.2958 | 72% | ABOVE | A |
| SPYG/SPHQ | 1.3695 | 1.482 | 1.3663 | 3% | BELOW | B |
| SPYG/IVE | 0.4754 | 0.5472 | 0.4701 | 7% | BELOW | B |
| SPYG/GLD | 0.3224 | 0.336 | 0.2961 | 66% | BELOW | B |
| SPYG/DBMF | 3.555 | 3.8287 | 3.5635 | -3% | BELOW | B |
| SPHQ/IVE | 0.3472 | 0.3711 | 0.3429 | 15% | BELOW | B |
| SPHQ/GLD | 0.2354 | 0.2377 | 0.2159 | 90% | ABOVE | A |
| SPHQ/DBMF | 2.5958 | 2.6878 | 2.5359 | 39% | ABOVE | A |
| IVE/GLD | 0.6781 | 0.681 | 0.604 | 96% | ABOVE | A |
| IVE/DBMF | 7.4774 | 7.7263 | 6.9577 | 68% | ABOVE | A |
| GLD/DBMF | 11.0266 | 12.1566 | 10.9639 | 5% | ABOVE | A |
| Read | Gap | Leaning |
|---|---|---|
| Cyclicals vs Defensives | +4 pts | risk-on |
| Commodities vs Bonds | -7 pts | disinflation |
| Equities vs Bonds | +13 pts | risk appetite |
| Bucket | Score | 4-wk Δ | Top quartile |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Sectors | 69 | +4.8 pts | 5/11 |
| US Subsectors | 60 | +9.5 pts | 3/12 |
| Developed Markets | 59 | +0.9 pts | 0/12 |
| Fixed Income | 51 | +3.0 pts | 0/20 |
| Emerging Markets | 47 | +5.6 pts | 2/9 |
| Commodities | 25 | -19.1 pts | 0/15 |
| Asset | Bucket | Score | Agree |
|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care | US Sectors | 95 | 4/4 |
| Consumer Staples | US Sectors | 91 | 4/4 |
| Insurance | US Subsectors | 89 | 3/4 |
| UAE | Emerging Markets | 88 | 3/4 |
| Retail | US Subsectors | 84 | 3/4 |
| Financials | US Sectors | 83 | 3/4 |
| Mexico | Emerging Markets | 80 | 3/4 |
| Materials | US Sectors | 79 | 3/4 |
| Energy | US Sectors | 77 | 3/4 |
| Airlines | US Subsectors | 77 | 2/4 |
The tactical MA(25/50) regime is bear on both SPY and QQQ, pointing to roughly 50% equity with the balance in cash (BIL).
SPY is still +3.5% above its 200-day average — the primary uptrend is unbroken, so the current weakness reads as a correction within an uptrend rather than a regime change.
Div. Growth (DGRO) leads with 6/6 pairwise Donchian votes and has held that lead for 22 days (previous leader: DBMF).
SPMO (momentum) has zero votes — momentum leadership has fully faded. That is the signature of a rotation into quality/value or a late-cycle phase, not a fresh risk-on impulse.
Relative-strength gaps: cyclicals vs defensives +4 pts, commodities vs bonds -7 pts, equities vs bonds +13 pts. The configuration reads neutral on risk appetite and neutral on inflation.
Only 2 of 79 funds sit in the top quartile at all four horizons — leadership is narrow and concentrated.
Four-week momentum is shifting toward Airlines and away from Technology — the market is rotating, not just moving in one direction.
Conviction is low — one clear signal. Trim equity to ~50% (or less); hold quality/value and defensives in the equity sleeve.
These notes are hypotheses consistent with the current data — descriptive, not predictive. A cross-asset move usually has more than one plausible explanation, and this dashboard sees prices only, not positioning, flows or news.